Utopia 1976

 

Utopia 1976 by Morris L. Ernst
Purchased from Athenaeum via Amazon • 305 pgs (c)1953 Rinehart & Company, Inc. (Read 01/09/05)

From the vantage point of the 1950s, Morris Ernst predicts what a Utopian world would look like in 1976.

Table of Contents

1. Why I Write a Utopia
2. Our New Leisure and Its Good Uses
3. Our New Benefactors
4. Our Population
5. Food and Farm
6. Market Place of Business
7. The Home and Family of 1976
8. Education and the Rich Life
9. The Healthy Body of 1976
10. The Sound Mind of 1976
11. Man Meets Man
12. Religion 1976-Its Function and Organization
13. The Market Place of Thought
14. Government in Hamlet and Nation
15. Law
16. War, Peace and the U.N.
17. Human Nature in a New Setting

I remember reading a copy of this book from the Petoskey Public Library (Mich)  in the early 1970s during  high school. At the time I thought it was a gas and because clearly 1976 was not going to be any Utopia and I thought Mr. Ernst's ideas of Utopia were quite naive. The title always stuck with me and nagged me to track down book. In the intervening years the library has discarded their copy but I was able to find another on the internet.

The author claims to be a "glandular optimist" which seems to be that he simply ignores the unpleasant characteristics of human nature. An example is his idea that there will be decline in advertising in the future (pg 107) because "much of the hokum of advertising will disappear as our people find new and better values than vanity."

Mr. Ernst's ideas of what makes a Utopia may not be widely shared. He anticipated that people, in general, would be happier in the non-competitive environment of the 1976 home where people would be weaving, playing the recorder, and doing hobby carpentry projects (pg 299).

Mr. Ernst falls into the trap of assuming that if a technology increases efficiency that the time saved will be channeled into free time for the worker rather than higher standards of productivity. (A similar situation arises in a book published about the same time, Atlas Shrugged.  In it, Ayn Rand's character John Galt predicts that cheaper electricity will mean that customers will be able to spend their energy savings on an extra pack of cigarettes.)

The biggest flaw of this book is the complete lack of footnotes or bibliography (especially odd for an attorney) and so some of the things presented as facts may, in fact, have no grounds at all or may be speculation on the part of the author. Notable is his discussion of (pg 72) the warming of the climate in the 1950s.

Predictably, some of Mr. Ernst's predictions did not come true in 1976:  that we'll we'll run out of fossil fuels by 1976 (pg 4) and that our population will be more homogenous (pg 64) are two. He also predicts the demise of packaging  (pg 123) "by 1976 the cellophane, tinfoil, thrice-wrapped and super-packaged piece of cheese will have given way to unostentatious wrapping of cheese, sold, in consequence at a price where the wrapping costs less than the commodity itself. Packaging will be for the purpose of protection and not to impress the neighbors." He also foresaw a continual improvement in railroads and the development of personal air scooters (pg 184). As for mental health, the advances of Electroshock therapy are lauded on page 170 and the need for dentists will completely disappear since we will improve our diet.

Some predictions are on target: synthetic foods (pg 79) and that the man's hat and tie are on the way out (pg 122). He predicts smaller cars because "A small car, easily parked, requiring less gas and upkeep, and a smaller garage, will save a family enough to take that trip to Africa." He is however, correct about the eventual importance of geneticists. In education, he says that there will be a shift away from the trades since trades will consist of pushing buttons (pg 158). Church membership and attendance will decline (pg 197). With improvements in the economics and efficiency of publishing there will be less emphasis on bestsellers (pg 205). He accurately anticipates the application of "electronics" to printing (pg 210) and (pg 215) speculates on what will happen when the movie industry releases its tremendous library on television (perhaps Ted Turner read this book). And he is correct in foretelling that movies will be created with an idea of appealing to world audiences (pg 216).

He believed that government could be streamlined by a reduction of the members of congress (pg 241) and the Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands would become states. In terms of law he successfully predicts the Miranda rights, believes capital punishment will be abolished (pg 263) and that there will be a reduction in litigation and fewer justices and lawyers (pg 266). He predicts smaller families, less envy, universal military training and an increase in virtue (pg 291).

Sexuality is an intriguing topic and he correctly foresees more sexual freedom but is not sure about a biological basis for sexual behavior (pg 293) "I assume that the sexually inept-the lesbian, the males homosexual and the impotent (if there be such)-have been pushed over the line by one or both parents."

His concluding sentence on page 305 is "1976-This Way-Energy, Leisure, Full Rich Life."